A few days ago, the New York Times published an opinion piece by Matthew Schmitz which said that Donald Trump "isn’t edging ahead of Mr. Biden in swing states because Americans are eager to submit to authoritarianism. . . . Mr. Trump enjoys enduring support because he is perceived by many voters — often with good reason — as a pragmatic if unpredictable kind of moderate." This was once true-- September 2016, a survey found that only 47% thought that Trump was a conservative, compared to about 60% for Mitt Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008. But a lot has happened since 2016--is it still true? In November 2023, a survey sponsored by Marquette Law School found that 78% thought Trump was conservative. That is, perceptions are very different today than they were in 2016. Comparing Trump with some Republican presidents and candidates from the past:
VL SL M SC VC DK mean
Reagan 04/1980 5 15 33 30 7 10 0.21
Reagan 01/1981 2 7 15 38 24 15 0.87
Reagan 01/1983 4 7 16 28 28 16 0.83
Reagan 02/1984 4 10 31 26 19 10 0.51
Bush 06/1999 2 12 27 31 9 19 0.41
Bush 01/2000 3 11 19 38 10 19 0.51
Bush 03/2000 6 13 22 31 17 11 0.45
Bush 10/2000 5 10 18 39 20 8 0.64
Bush 11/2003 6 9 19 39 22 5 0.65
Bush 07/2004 2 6 19 43 24 5 0.86
McCain 12/2007 2 8 32 39 6 12 0.45
Romney 12/2007 1 8 22 39 8 21 0.58
McCain 01/2008 2 10 27 35 7 19 0.43
McCain 03/2008 4 7 31 29 17 12 0.55
McCain 06/2008 2 8 34 29 19 8 0.60
McCain 10/2008 2 8 26 45 17 3 0.68
Romney 12/2011 2 9 53 22 7 7 0.25
Romney 10/2012 5 9 21 40 16 9 0.58
Romney 11/2012 4 5 26 37 19 9 0.68
Trump 09/2016 8 12 21 30 17 13 0.41
Trump 07/2022 6 4 11 30 48 1 1.11
Trump 11/2023 7 3 13 30 48 0 1.08
Unfortunately, the question doesn't seem to have been asked between 2016 and 2022, so we can't say just when perceptions changed, but they have definitely changed--Trump is now seen as more conservative than GW Bush, Romney, or even Reagan ever was. This isn't surprising, because he governed as a conservative Republican (as Alan Abramowitz, a professor of Political Science at Emory University, pointed out in a letter to the editor today). As far as why Trump leads Biden in most recent polls, a more likely explanation is the tradition of the two-party system--if people don't think Biden is doing a good job, they turn to the Republicans. And Republican elites haven't made an effort to discredit Trump or push him aside, so ordinary voters treat him as a normal representative of the party.
[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]
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