Party images

 A few weeks ago, Thomas Edsall mentioned a survey question on which party was better at looking out for the middle class.  The Democrats led, but only by 36% to 34%, which was the smallest in the 30-year history of the question.  I followed the links and found that the question was part of a group: which party was better at dealing with crime, immigration, education, health care, abortion, looking out for the middle class, and dealing with the economy.  Not all questions were asked in all surveys, and there were substantial gaps for some of them, but they still provide information on how party images have or haven't changed.  I show percent saying Republicans minus percent saying Democrats--that is, positive numbers mean the Republicans have an advantage on the issue.  The color of the points indicates the party of the administration.

Republicans consistently had an advantage on dealing with crime, but it's been larger under Biden than it was in the 1990s or the one time it was asked during the Trump administration (October 2020).

Neither party has a consistent advantage.  The Democrats generally had an advantage during the Bush, and Trump administrations, but the Republicans have had a big advantage under Biden.  Things were up and down under Obama--overall the parties were close.  Thus, it seems that people react against the party in power, but the reaction has been especially strong under Biden.  

Unfortunately, there is a long gap (1996-2011) on this question.  But there is an interesting pattern beginning in 2011--the Republicans made steady gains under Obama and Trump.  

On dealing with the economy, there's a similar pattern of steady Republican gains in recent years.  There are also signs of the reaction against the incumbent party that was seen for immigration.

 

The Democrats consistently have an advantage on education, although there's a good deal of fluctuation in the size.  Under Biden, the lead has been small by historical standards.  

The Democrats have consistently had an advantage on abortion, although the Republicans seemed to be closing the gap in the 1990s and early 2000s.  Since the Dobbs decision, the Democratic lead has increased.  

On health care, the Democrats have consistently had an advantage.  It was smaller under Obama, but has grown under Trump and Biden.  There seems to have been a reaction against Democratic attempts at reform under Clinton and Obama, but as people have experienced the Obama reform they have returned to the Democrats.  

For me, the most surprising thing is that Republican gains on the economy and the middle class didn't start with Biden, but have been pretty steady since the early years of the Obama administration.  Since these are important to voters, this is bad news for the Democrats.  However, there is one case in which views about the middle class changed quickly---the Democratic advantage fell from 20 points to 9 between October 1993 and 1994, but then went back to 19 by December 1995.