Monday, December 4, 2023

Changing views of Israel?

In the last few months, strongly negative views of Israel have been more prominent than they have been in the past.  Does this reflect a change in general public opinion?  In 1956, 1966, and then frequently from the 1970s to the 1990s, there were questions asking people to rate Israel on a scale of -5 to +5.  Since the 1980s, there have been frequent questions asking if you have very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable views of Israel.  The figure shows the percent holding strongly negative views--"very unfavorable" or  -4 and -5 on the -5 to +5 scale.  (I started from the present and worked backwards, so "Form 1" is the newer question and "Form 2" is the older one).



Over the long term, there is no trend.  Although there's a lot of short-term variation among surveys, it seems like there was an increase in the 1980s and then a decline in the 1990s, but since then it's been pretty steady (at least until the last survey in February 2023).  I don't recall the history well enough to offer an explanation for the change in the 1980s-90s.   

So the change in political discourse apparently doesn't reflect a change in the overall distribution of views.  But what about the social location of anti-Israel views?  The General Social Survey regularly asked the -5 to +5 question from the 1970s to the 1990s, so I got breakdowns by some demographic groups and compared them to the average from the last four Gallup surveys (2020-23)

                                            Strongly Unfavorable Views of Israel
                             
                                          1970s-90s                 2020s
White                                     10%                        5%                       
Non-white                             13%                        13%

18-34                                      11%                       10%
35-54                                        9%                         8%
55-64                                      12%                         6%

Republican                               9%                          5%
Independent                             10%                         9%
Democrat                                 11%                        10%

Conservative                              9%                          5%
Moderate                                  11%                          9%
Liberal                                      10%                         11%

College grad                               6%                           6%
Not college grad                        12%                          9%

The differences by race, age, party, and ideology were small in the GSS sample--strongly negative views of Israel were scattered about equally among all of those groups.  In recent years, however, there is a pattern--strongly negative views are more common among younger people, non-whites, liberals, and Democrats.  So they now have more of a definite social location.  But education is different--the gap has become smaller.  Despite the attention given to anti-Israel views in universities, particularly elite universities, strongly negative views of Israel remain more common among less educated people.  How do you reconcile this with the apparent strength of anti-Israel views at universities, especially elite universities?  It's possible that there's an interaction involving education and age--that anti-Israel views are common among  college students or young college graduates.  I can't check this, since I don't have access to the individual-level data for recent surveys, but I don't think that it's likely to be more than a secondary factor.  I think this is a case where advocates of a minority view are unwilling to or don't feel the need to moderate their demands in order to appeal to the majority.  This is somewhat unusual, but not remarkably so--for example, you also see it with abortion (on both sides), and the Freedom Caucus approach to government spending.  I don't know of any attempts to explain when and why it happens, although it seems like an important issue.   

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]


1 comment:

  1. My guess is that the 1980s-1990 number reflects Israel’s violent response to the relatively peaceful first Intifada.

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