Over the long term, there is no trend. Although there's a lot of short-term variation among surveys, it seems like there was an increase in the 1980s and then a decline in the 1990s, but since then it's been pretty steady (at least until the last survey in February 2023). I don't recall the history well enough to offer an explanation for the change in the 1980s-90s.
So the change in political discourse apparently doesn't reflect a change in the overall distribution of views. But what about the social location of anti-Israel views? The General Social Survey regularly asked the -5 to +5 question from the 1970s to the 1990s, so I got breakdowns by some demographic groups and compared them to the average from the last four Gallup surveys (2020-23)
Strongly Unfavorable Views of Israel
1970s-90s 2020s
White 10% 5%
Non-white 13% 13%
18-34 11% 10%
35-54 9% 8%
55-64 12% 6%
Republican 9% 5%
Independent 10% 9%
Democrat 11% 10%
Conservative 9% 5%
Moderate 11% 9%
Liberal 10% 11%
College grad 6% 6%
Not college grad 12% 9%
The differences by race, age, party, and ideology were small in the GSS sample--strongly negative views of Israel were scattered about equally among all of those groups. In recent years, however, there is a pattern--strongly negative views are more common among younger people, non-whites, liberals, and Democrats. So they now have more of a definite social location. But education is different--the gap has become smaller. Despite the attention given to anti-Israel views in universities, particularly elite universities, strongly negative views of Israel remain more common among less educated people. How do you reconcile this with the apparent strength of anti-Israel views at universities, especially elite universities? It's possible that there's an interaction involving education and age--that anti-Israel views are common among college students or young college graduates. I can't check this, since I don't have access to the individual-level data for recent surveys, but I don't think that it's likely to be more than a secondary factor. I think this is a case where advocates of a minority view are unwilling to or don't feel the need to moderate their demands in order to appeal to the majority. This is somewhat unusual, but not remarkably so--for example, you also see it with abortion (on both sides), and the Freedom Caucus approach to government spending. I don't know of any attempts to explain when and why it happens, although it seems like an important issue.
[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]
My guess is that the 1980s-1990 number reflects Israel’s violent response to the relatively peaceful first Intifada.
ReplyDelete