Focused on the future

During the 2016 election campaign, Donald Trump refused to give a definite answer when asked whether he would accept the results if he lost:  as I recall, his usual response was something like "we'll see what happens."   A Fox News survey from late October of that year asked "If your candidate loses the presidential election in November, will you accept that his or her opponent won fair and square and will be the legitimate leader of the country?"  87% of the people who intended to vote for Hillary Clinton (or were leaning towards Clinton) said that they would; only 56% of those who intended to vote for Trump or were leaning towards Trump said that they would (34% said they would not and 10% weren't sure).  But it may be easier to say that you would be a good loser when you don't expect to lose.  The same survey asked "who do you think will win in November":  64% said Clinton, 26% Trump, and 10% weren't sure.  What if we adjust for expectations?  

Nearly all Clinton supporters expected her to win (93%), so it doesn't make much difference on that side:  for what it's worth, 88% of those who expected her to win and 79% of those who weren't sure or thought she would lose said they would accept Trump as the legitimate leader.  Among Trump supporters, 34% expected Clinton to win, 12% weren't sure, and 55% expected Trump to win.  64% of those who expected Clinton to win, 58% of those who weren't sure, and 51% of those who expected Trump to win said they would accept Clinton as the legitimate leader if she won.  That is, the gap in willingness to accept the other candidate as the legitimate leader is even larger when you adjust for expectations by comparing Clinton supporters who expected to win with Trump supporters who expected to win.  

Of course, the "fair and square . . . legitimate leader" question is open to interpretation:  someone might believe that a candidate had really gotten the votes, but had used unfair tactics.  Since 2004, Gallup has asked about confidence that votes "will be accurately cast and counted in this year’s election."  I'll look at that question in my next post.  

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]