Thursday, October 10, 2024

Focused on the future, part 3

My last two posts were about answers to a question on confidence that "votes will be accurately cast and counted accurately" in elections, which has been asked a number of times since 2004.  As far as I know, there were no comparable questions before then.  However, a question on "dishonesty in the voting or counting of votes in your district" was asked in 1959 and 1964, and since 2004 there have been several "accurately cast and counted" questions that specified "at the facility where you vote."  I showed the overall results in a previous post,  and will look at party differences in this one.  There's a general tendency for people to be more positive about things that are closer to them, but my question is whether partisan differences in views on local elections might track partisan differences in views on national elections.    Here is average confidence in "the facility where you vote" by party:


It has declined for all groups, although the decline seems smaller for Democrats.  Independents are the least confident, which is probably because they tend to be more suspicious of politics in general.  Comparing confidence in national and local elections for each partisan group (red is local, blue is national):






They changes aren't parallel:  for Democrats and Independents, the gap between confidence in the national and local vote has become smaller; for Republicans, it's become bigger.  The results for Republicans aren't surprising, since their claims of fraud have focused on heavily Democratic places, like Philadelphia, Detroit, and Atlanta.  The general tendency seems to be for confidence in local voting to vary less than confidence in national voting.  

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]

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