More complicated than I thought

 This title could apply to a lot of my posts, but the story behind this one is that in February Andrew Gelman sent an e-mail to several people who studied public opinion noting that quite a few Americans said they didn't want to take the covid vaccine and asking if this was true in other countries.  I didn't know of any data on other countries, but I looked up surveys on the polio vaccine in the 1950s, and found that in 1954, 31% said they didn't want to get it, and 17% didn't want their children to get it.  I added "That was more “no” answers than I expected. Maybe a significant number of people are always reluctant to try something new, or at least to be among the first to try it. I think there has been a change in the media—they used to be more deferential to the authorities and less inclined to report news that might promote doubts. Today they are more willing to report on anti-vaccine sentiments and on potential problems or limitations of the vaccines."  Recent news stories about continued reluctance to take the covid vaccine brought this back to mind, so I looked for more data about the polio vaccine.

In 1954, the vaccine was being tested.  The tests were successful and general distribution began in April 1955.   Initially the distribution was limited to children, who were more likely to get polio.  The results for questions on whether you would "like to" take it (1954) or were "planning to take it" (1955 and after).

                     Yes          No

May 1954      60%       31%

June 1955     37%        49%

Jan 1956       48%        38%

The results for questions on children:

                         Yes*        No          Mixed

May 1954          75%      17%       

April 1955         84%        5%

May 1955          69%      10%       10%

It seems that something happened between April and May 1955 to reduce confidence in the vaccine.  That something was the "Cutter Incident," which was mentioned in one of the comments on Andrew's blog post.  Several companies were manufacturing the vaccine.  One of them, Cutter Laboratories, used a process that did not kill all of the virus.  That is, their shots contained live virus, and some people got polio from the vaccine.  The Cutter vaccine was recalled on April 27, 1955, almost immediately once reports of problems appeared, but distribution of vaccines from other manufacturers continued.  So the drop in interest in taking the vaccine between April and May is understandable.  In June 1955, a report was released which concluded that the problems were limited to Cutter, and that the vaccines produced by other manufacturers were safe.  But although interest in taking the vaccine recovered to some extent, in January 1956 it was still lower than it had been in 1954.  In early 1957, when the vaccine had become widely available,  most children under 12, but only 39% of teenagers and 12% of adults under 40 had been vaccinated.**

So there was a good deal of "vaccine reluctance" in the 1950s.  I looked at the 1954 data on interest in getting your children vaccinated and found no clear differences among demographic groups and no relation to political views.  In my next post, I'll look at the data from May 1955 and after to see if any pattern emerged (especially any pattern involving politics).

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]

*Includes 11% "already vaccinated" in May 1955.  

**People over 40 were not considered to be at significant risk of getting polio.