Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Geography of police shootings: not much change

In 2016, I had several posts on fatal police shootings.  Unfortunately, the issue of killing by police has come up again, so I went back  to the data, which are maintained by the Washington Post and available here.  Of course, they just involve fatal shootings, but there doesn't seem to be any other systematic collection of other kinds of deaths at the hands of police, and presumably the great majority of deaths are by shooting.

There is no trend in the annual totals:

2015    994
2016    962
2017    986
2018    992
2019  1004
2020    400

When I downloaded the data a few days ago, almost exactly 40% of 2020 had passed, so that projects to just about 1000 in 2020.

In 2016, I computed the rates of fatal shootings for the 100 largest cities and noted that there were large differences among them. That is still true--the highest rates are in  St. Louis, Las Vegas, Kansas City, Miami, and Orlando.  The lowest, going from low to high:  Irvine, New York, Greensboro, Plano, Chula Vista.  If we restrict it to cities with a population of over 500,000, the lowest are New York, Nashville, San Diego, Philadelphia, and Boston.  Annual rates per 100,000 ranged from .07 to 1.8.  New York City had a total of 37, while St. Louis had 30, with about 1/25 of New York's population.  I give the whole list at the end of this post.

My initial idea was to look for changes in the rates, but there wasn't much to see there.  That was partly because the numbers are small in most cities, so it's hard to distinguish possible trends from random variation.  There are three in which there is moderately strong evidence of a decline--  Indianapolis, San Francisco, and Oakland--and none in which there's clear evidence of an increase.  However, as mentioned above, the totals have hardly changed.

People often speak of states and cities as "laboratories of democracy"--the idea is that they can try out different approaches and adopt the ones that work best.  Organizational change is difficult, but it is possible:  according to a NY Times story  "In 1972, New York officers fired 2,510 bullets and killed 66 people. By 2014, there were 288 shots fired and eight people killed."  You might think that after police killings began to get more attention, that public officials in places like St Louis would start seeing if they could emulate places like New York or Nashville.  But that doesn't seem to have happened.  Why not?  I would guess that it's people who are interested in politics have become increasingly focused on the national level.  Moreover, most people who are engaged in politics are middle class, so when they pay attention to local issues, it's of things that are of more concern to middle class people, like schools.

PS:  There are some data on police department policies involving the use of force in the 100 largest cities.  It would be interesting to see whether they are related to the rate of deaths.

Rate of police killings (annual, per 100,000), 100 largest cities:

 1            Irvine      0.072
2          New York       0.080
3        Greensboro       0.130
4             Plano       0.131
5       Chula Vista       0.139
6       Jersey City       0.140
7           Lubbock       0.149
8        Chesapeake       0.157
9         Lexington       0.177
10        Nashville       0.198
11        San Diego       0.199
12     Philadelphia       0.201
13           Boston       0.222
14    Winston-Salem       0.230
15          Hialeah       0.234
16   Virginia Beach       0.245
17          Detroit       0.246
18          Raleigh       0.246
19           Dallas       0.256
20          Chicago       0.259


21       Fort Wayne       0.285
22   Corpus Christi       0.286
23          Buffalo       0.287
24   St. Petersburg       0.288
25           Laredo       0.290
26          Gilbert       0.299
27       Pittsburgh       0.304
28      Minneapolis       0.315
29    San Francisco       0.321
30           Toledo       0.331
31          Lincoln       0.334
32        Cleveland       0.334
33          Seattle       0.352
34         Chandler       0.355
35        Charlotte       0.358
36         San Jose       0.361
37     Indianapolis       0.369
38          Madison       0.372
39       Fort Worth       0.378
40          El Paso       0.381


41      Los Angeles       0.387
42  North Las Vegas       0.394
43          Oakland       0.398
44          Fremont       0.399
45        Riverside       0.402
46       Washington       0.413
47      New Orleans       0.428
48        Milwaukee       0.432
49       Cincinnati       0.434
50          Houston       0.452
51          Memphis       0.452
52       Sacramento       0.453
53            Omaha       0.459
54           Irving       0.470
55           Durham       0.503
56          Wichita       0.522
57          Norfolk       0.526
58         Portland       0.527
59          Anaheim       0.528
60      San Antonio       0.542


61          Garland       0.547
62       Scottsdale       0.547
63            Tampa       0.552
64         St. Paul       0.554
65        Anchorage       0.558
66        Baltimore       0.566
67           Austin       0.576
68        Henderson       0.583
69           Newark       0.591
70        Santa Ana       0.607
71           Fresno       0.641
72    Colo. Springs       0.649
73         Columbus       0.654
74            Boise       0.679
75         Honolulu       0.682
76       Louisville       0.692
77       Long Beach       0.703
78     Jacksonville       0.704
79        Arlington       0.716
80         Stockton       0.727


81          Atlanta       0.798
82           Denver       0.814
83             Mesa       0.824
84             Reno       0.844
85           Aurora       0.876
86    Oklahoma City       0.880
87          Phoenix       0.889
88      Baton Rouge       0.891
89         Richmond       0.925
90         Glendale       0.925
91           Tucson       1.010
92      Bakersfield       1.090
93            Tulsa       1.101
94   San Bernardino       1.114
95      Albuquerque       1.159
96          Orlando       1.230
97            Miami       1.260
98      Kansas City       1.286
99        Las Vegas       1.306
100       St. Louis       1.877

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