A few years ago, I said that beliefs about changes in crime rates were affected both by actual conditions and partisanship, but that the effect of partisanship seemed to be bigger for Republicans. This post will look at the issue in more depth.
The Gallup Poll has two questions about change in crime rates; "is there more crime in the U.S. than there was a year ago, or less?" and "is there more crime in your area than there was a year ago, or less?" Both of them have been asked almost annually since 1989, usually in October. The percent who think that there is more crime in the nation, by party ID:
The effect of partisanship is clear: for example, between 2024 and 2025, Republicans became less likely to think that crime was increasing while Democrats became more likely. Judging the effect of actual crime rates is more difficult, because "crime" can include a lot of things, most of which aren't well measured, but here are homicide rates:
Here's the percent who think there's more crime in their area, by partisanship:
Constant Rate D
Reps, nation: 32 4.7 16
Dems, nation: 38 5.0 -9.2
D is one if a Democrat is president, 0 if a Republican is. So if a Democrat is president, Republicans are more likely to say that the crime rate is increasing and Democrats are less likely. The estimated size of the partisan effect is larger for Republicans, although the difference is not statistically significant.
Constant Rate D
Reps, area: 25 1.9 18
Dems, area: 28 2.4 -3.5
It's the same general pattern, but the difference in partisan effects is larger (and statistically significant). It might seem odd that the effect of partisanship on beliefs about local conditions would be at least as strong as on beliefs about national conditions, but even getting a clear view of "your area" goes beyond personal experience.
The effect of partisanship seems to be growing. The average gaps (Republican minus Democratic percnet) by administration:
Area Nation
GHWB -7.3 -1
Clinton 3.5 3.8
GWB -9.5 -14.8
Obama 10.3 15.4
Trump-1 -3 -2.5
Biden 34.8 39
Trump-2 9 8
There's also a more subtle point: in the two Bush administrations, Republicans were less likely to think that crime was increasing than Democrats were, but if you average the two Trump administrations, there's essentially no difference. That doesn't mean the effect of partisanship has disappeared--look at the Biden administration--but that Republicans have become more negative in general. Although the 2025 homicide rate was the lowest of the whole period, Republicans were more likely to see crime as increasing than they were in 1998-2004. This fits with something Paul Krugman mentioned the other day: that Trump seems reluctant to talk about the decline in crime: although he talks about the decline in Washington DC, but he suggests that things are terrible in the "blue cities." But it's noteworthy that the increasingly negative mood among Republicans seems to apply to perceptions of your area as well. I wonder if it's a general rule that it's easier to influence your followers in a negative than in a positive direction. That seems plausible, although I don't know of any research on the subject.
Note: the regression estimates are OLS, but regressions allowing for serial correlation in the residuals produced similar results.
[Data from Gallup and the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]
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