Vibe shift?, part 4

 I wasn't planning to write another post on this topic, but then I ran across some questions on immigration policy, which was a major issue in the election.  In February 2017, I wrote about three questions on immigration.  One was about "illegal immigrants who are currently working in the United States":  whether you "favor deporting as many as possible or do you favor setting up a system for them to become legal residents?" The graph shows percent choosing "set up a system" minus percent choosing "deporting as many as possible":

Opinion was pretty evenly divided in 2007-10, but in those years the introduction just said "illegal immigrants" rather than "illegal immigrants who are working."  More recently, large majorities have favored "setting up a system for them to become legal residents."  Unfortunately, the last time the question was asked was in August 2020, so there's no way to know whether opinions changed during Biden's time in office.  

Another question on deportation is "do you favor or oppose...deporting [all] illegal immigrants* back to their home countries?"   The graph shows percent opposed minus percent favor, so as with the first graph, higher numbers represent the "softer" view.  

The red dots are questions that include "all."  This seems to make a difference--opinions are evenly divided or mostly opposed to "deporting all illegal immigrants" but mostly in favor of "deporting illegal immigrants."  

Unlike the first question, this one has been asked a number of times in the last year or so, making it useful for assessing the idea of a "vibe shift."  The figure shows opinions in 2024-25.  During that period, it had options for "strongly" and "somewhat" favor or oppose, so I count strongly as 2 and somewhat as 1.  There was also a variant that was new in 2024, which added "even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?"  The two versions were asked to randomly selected halves of the sample.

For the basic version, most people favored deportation, and the level of support didn't vary much.  For the "even if" version, most people opposed deportation, and it seems like there was a shift towards greater opposition between the second and third times it was asked (August and October 2024).  There was no change after the election (the last two were in December 2024 and February 2025).  

Finally, there is this question:  "Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? 1. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship, or 2. They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as guest workers, but not to apply for U.S. citizenship, or 3. They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S."  The figure shows the average counting the first option as +1, the second as zero, and the third as -1.

Opinions are consistently on the "allowed to stay" side.  There is no trend over the whole period, but opinions moved towards "allowed to stay" after the 2024 election.  In the most recent survey, 51% said allowed to stay and eventually apply for citizenship, 19% said allowed to stay as guest workers, and 30% said required to leave.  

Putting these together, if there has been a recent "vibe shift," it's away from support for deportation. Over the long term, there's no clear trend.   

*or sometimes "immigrants who are living in the United States illegally"

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]