Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Education, partisanship, and the world

As I've mentioned before, one of the major components of Donald Trump's world-view is that other nations are gaining at our expense:  "beating" us on trade, taking aid from us and not giving anything in return.  This general view is also shared by much of the public.  Here are the results from a survey question asking whether "other countries generally treat the United States about as fairly as we treat them" or "other countries often take unfair advantage of the United States." 

              As fairly            Take advantage

1994        19%                 78%
1999        24%                 70%
2018        42%                 51%
2021        46%                 52%

Between 1999 and 2018, partisan divisions became larger, as Democrats moved towards the "treat fairly" position.  Presumably, this was a reaction against Donald Trump:  when the "take unfair advantage" position became more strongly associated with the Republican party, Democrats turned against it.  However, it's not entirely a matter of partisanship:  even after controlling for party, more educated people are more likely to say that other countries treat us fairly.  The percentages choosing "treat us fairly":*

                                          Dem-1999        Dem-2021            Rep-1999        Rep-2021                

No college                           19%                 52%                        18%              19%               
Some college                       30%                  64%                       21%              18%               
College graduate                  48%                 77%                        32%               25%               

In 1999, there was no difference between Democrats and Republicans among less educated people.  Between 1999 and 2021, Democrats moved strongly towards the "treat fairly" position;  Republicans stayed about the same, and Republican college graduates even had a small shift towards "take unfair advantage."  As a result, Democrats are more divided by education than Republicans are.  

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]

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