A tale of two columns, part 2

As I mentioned last time, there are some exceptions to the general pattern of declining confidence in institutions.  One is small business:

Levels of confidence are high--the average is just below 3, or "quite a lot" of confidence--and there's not much year-to-year variation.*  I think the reason that small business is an exception to the declining trend is that there's no partisan dispute--both parties talk about their fondness for small business.  

Another is the criminal justice system:

There seems to be a pattern:  a rise until the early 2000s, and then a fall, leaving confidence about the same at the end as at the beginning (1993).  The rise could reflect "performance"--the decline in the crime rate during the 1990s and early 2000s.  Crime hasn't changed consistently in the past couple of decades, so it's followed the general decline in institutional confidence.  

Confidence in the police has declined, but the decline has been slower than for most institutions:

The pattern is similar to criminal justice:  steady or a slight increase until the early 21st century, and then a decline.  Again, the decline in crime during the 1990s could help to explain the pattern.

Finally, two institutions for which data goes back to the 1970s:  organized labor and the military.

Confidence is labor has generally increased since about 2015, although it is still lower than it was in the 1970s.  

Confidence in the military hit a low in 1981, then increased until the second half of the 2010s.  Although it's declined over the last few years, it's still higher than it was in the 1970s.  

I think the reason that labor and the military are exceptions to the general pattern is that partisan controversy involving them has declined.  With organized labor, that's mostly because it's become less powerful--strikes are rare and contract negotiations are no longer big news stories--so there are fewer occasions for controversy.  With the military, Democratic politicians have become less critical--e. g., allegations of wasteful military spending used to be a prominent issue.  It seems like there was a shift from both sides:  Democrats didn't want to be seen as anti-military, and the military wanted to have bipartisan support.  However, confidence in the military has declined substantially since about 2019--I will try to get a partisan breakdown to see if that sheds any light.

*The y-axes have the same range for all institutions (0.9 between the high and low) so the amount of variation can be compared visually.