Did he do it?

 

After O. J. Simpson's death last week, I looked for surveys that asked for views about whether he was guilty of the murders of Nicole Brown Simpson and Ronald Goldman.  The figure is based on surveys which offered options of definitely guilty, probably guilty, probably not guilty, and definitely not guilty (counted as +2,+1, -1, and -2).*  All of the figures are positive, meaning that more people thought him guilty than not guilty.  Over the whole period, there was a move towards thinking that he was guilty--the latest surveys found that about 40% thought he was definitely guilty and another 40% thought he was probably guilty.  I thought that the civil case that found he was responsible for the murders might have helped to move opinion in that direction, but if anything it seems to have been followed by a short-term shift away from thinking he was guilty.  One survey taken at the time of the controversy over the release and withdrawal of his book, "If I did it," showed a move towards thinking him guilty.  But basically, it seems to have been a gradual movement over a long period.  

The next figure is the same data, but limited to the period up to the end of the criminal trial.  I don't recall most of the details of the trial, but the way the story is often told now, there were a number of dramatic moments in which the defense succeeded in raising doubts about his guilt.  You don't see much sign of this in the survey results--there seems to have been a small move towards thinking him guilty during the trial, followed by a drop after the verdict.  The absence of ups and downs during the trial surprised me--a lot of people followed it closely, and although many had strong opinions, it wasn't a partisan issue, so I would expect them to be more open to changing their minds.  

During and after the criminal trial, many people noted that there was a large division by race--black people were a lot less likely to think that Simpson was guilty.  This raises the question of whether that was there from the beginning or emerged during the trial, and whether it remained in the later surveys.  I'll look at this issue in a future post.  

*Some asked if the charges were definitely true, probably true, probably not true, or definitely not true.  Immediately after he was found not guilty, some prefaced the question with "whether or not you agree with the jury's decision."  There was no evidence that these variations made a difference.