Why the long face, part 2

My last post said that the low ratings of current economic conditions weren't the result of increased partisanship--it's not just Republicans who rate them as poor, but people of all parties.  Of course, "economic conditions" can cover a lot of things, so let's look at some of the alternative measures.  Gallup has a question going back to 2001:  "Thinking about the job situation in America today, would you say that it is now a good time or a bad time to find a quality job?"  The last time it was asked (January 2023), 64% said it was a good time and 33% said it was a bad time.  That's good by historical standards--higher than it ever was before August 2017.  So people are quite positive about one important aspect of the economy.  Gallup also has this question:  "Next, we are interested in how people’s financial situation may have changed. Would you say that you are financially better off now than you were a year ago, or are you financially worse off now?"  As of January 2023, 35% say better off and 50% say worse off.  That's about where it was in the recessions of 1992-3 and the early 2000s, and somewhat better than the worst years of the "Great Recession" (the graph is here).  

The second Gallup question is just about the same as one of the two items in the Michigan index--the other one is about whether it's a good time to buy major household items.  Opinions on these two questions follow different patterns--for the financial situation, the Michigan question is similar to the Gallup one--the current value is low, but not exceptionally low.  For the "good time to buy" it is exceptionally low--lower than it ever was in the "Great Recession" or the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s (graphs can be found in the "data booklets" here).  This question isn't purely about current or recent conditions--to some extent it's looking ahead.  That is, someone who thinks that economic conditions will get worse will hesitate to make a large purchase.  This is probably a factor now--the economic situation seems uncertain.  

As far as the "better off than a year ago" results, the government spent unprecedented amounts to protect people from the Covid recession.  As a result, ratings of how your situation compared to a year ago were not that bad in 2020 and early 2021, even though unemployment passed 10%.  But the other side of that is that as the aid was cut back and the recovery was slower than expected, people became more negative.  Also, although I'm not sure, my impression is that businesses (especially large businesses) absorbed more of the blow in 2020-21--they didn't lay off as many people as they could have and didn't make much effort to cut wages--but when conditions improved, they have made up for that by holding the line against wage increases.  So people's standard of living didn't fall as much as the unemployment numbers would suggest in 2020-21, but hasn't risen as much as they'd suggest in 2022-3.  

[Some data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]