Views of recent immigrants, 1986-2015

 In 1986, a CBS News/NY Times survey asked "Overall, would you say most recent immigrants to the United States contribute to this country or do most of them cause problems?"  The question was repeated off and on until August 2015 (it's odd that it hasn't been repeated since then).  The results (usually about 10% said they didn't know and about 8% volunteered that it depends--those numbers didn't show any pattern):  

Opinion clearly moved in a pro-immigrant direction, although it's hard to say if it is a trend or a one-time jump.  In 1994, 29% said that they contributed and 53% that they caused problems.  The next survey wasn't until December 2001, when the numbers were almost reversed (51%-31%).  That was only a few months after the September 11 terrorist attacks, which might have been expected to produce more negative attitudes towards immigrants.  The fact that opinions were generally positive could reflect the influence of political leadership:  as Paul Krugman said, George Bush did a lot of bad things as president, but after September 11 he "tried to calm prejudice, not feed it."  

The 2007 survey also asked "do you think most other people would say most recent immigrants to the United States contribute to this country, or do most of them cause problems?"  This kind of question interests me, because beliefs about what other people think may affect willingness to act on your own beliefs.  I think that usually believing that most people are on your side is an advantage--it makes people more likely to express their views and therefore more likely to convert others--although sometimes it may lead movements to take extreme positions that are unpopular (Republican overreach on abortion in the past year may be an example).  People generally underestimated pro-immigrant sentiment:  32% said contribute and 53% said cause problems.  There's a general tendency to think that other people share your views, and that was the case here:

                                  Think others think
                              Contribute       Problems

Contribute                    47%                44%

Cause problems           13%                 78%

I looked at some other factors to see if they affected perceptions of what other people thought, but none of them made much difference after controlling for your own beliefs.  Why were people who thought immigrants caused problems more confident that most other people shared their beliefs?  One possibility is that it's because opinions about immigrants had been more negative in the past.  Most people don't have frequent conversations about particular political issues, so when people try to judge what other people think they may rely on things that they heard years ago.

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]