Wednesday, March 1, 2023

I'm OK, you're OK

 A recent  Rasmussen poll asking people if they agree or disagree that "it's OK to be white" has gotten a lot of attention.  26% of black respondents disagreed, and 21% said they didn't know.  Scott Adams notoriously interpreted those results as meaning that almost half of black people are hostile to whites.  It's hard to say what they actually mean, since the statement is vague and open to a lot of different interpretations--13% of whites said they didn't know (and 7% disagreed).   But there's another question which measures feelings in a straightforward way:  the American National Election Studies "feeling thermometer" that asks people to rate their feelings on a scale of 0 to 100, with numbers over 50 indicating that you feel "favorably and warm" toward the group and numbers under 50 indicating that you "don't feel favorably . . . and that you don't care too much for that group."  Feeling thermometers for blacks and whites have been included regularly since 1964.  The figures show the average ratings of whites and blacks by race:


Among both blacks and whites, the rating for their own race declined until around 1990 and has stayed about the same since then.  White ratings of blacks have become steadily more favorable.  Black ratings of whites increased until about 2000, but have declined since then--it's hard to be sure about the timing since the black samples are small in most years, but there has clearly been a change in direction.  Still, even the latest black ratings of whites are mostly favorable (an average of 62), and about the same as the average rating of blacks by whites circa 1990.  Looking more closely at 2020, 4.5% of blacks rate whites at 0, and another 3.2 rate them at 20 or less.  On the other side, 13% of blacks rate whites as 97-100.  

The recent decline in black ratings of whites is interesting, and may be cause for concern, but favorable ratings are more common than unfavorable ones, and definite hostility is rare.




2 comments:

  1. It's sensible zoom to the "feeling rating" window of 50-90 so the details are more clear but I can't help but want to see the chart with the full range of feeling ratings, so it's obvious that they're mostly positive. Also you indicate the extremes of black ratings of whites; it would be interesting and presumably beneficial to see the full data set with all the extremes.

    It's interesting that the ratings of whites (by both blacks and whites) have inflections at about the same time (1995-2002), possibly slightly earlier for white/white than for black/white. Actually there's also a slight inflection for white/black at about that time too.

    The early-mid 1990s saw Giuliani elected as NYC mayor, the emergence of the "broken windows" policing strategy (cracking down on minor crimes as a way of cleaning up inner cities), Clinton's welfare reforms, the emergence of "3-strikes" laws, and a long-term inflection in violent crime rates. Also that was the beginning of the period in which the large, dilapidated and crime-ridden Federal housing projects were destroyed.

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  2. Very interesting metrics, over time. Lotsa opportunities for insightful analysis.

    Where did these "feeling thermometer ratings by race" come from? I can't locate anything on the American National Election Studies website.

    Thanks!

    If possible, please provide weblink(s).

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