Sunday, February 14, 2021

You could look it up

 There was an opinion piece by Heather McGhee in the NY Times this morning which contained the following passage:  "In the late 1950s, over two-thirds of white Americans agreed with the now-radical idea that the government ought to guarantee a job for anyone who wants one and ensure a minimum standard of living for everyone in the country. White support for those ideas nose-dived from around 70 to 35 percent from 1960 to 1964, and has remained low ever since."  This statement seems to be based on a question in the American National Election Studies: 

1956-1960: 
(Same introduction as in VCF0805 [CARD WITH RESPONSES SHOWN]).
'The government in Washington ought to see to it that everybody who
wants to work can find a job.'
1964,1968:
In general, some people feel that the government in Washington should
see to it that every person has a job and a good standard of living.
Others think the government should just let each person get ahead on his
own.'  Have you been interested enough in this to favor one side over
the other.  (IF YES:)  Do you think that the government --

 White support for the first option was about 55% in 1956, 1958, and 1960, and a little over 25% in 1964 and 1968. (Both are lower than the numbers McGhee gives, but she may have been omitting the "some of both" or "don't know" answers). But  is that the same question in 1960 and 1964? The 1964 question omits "wants to work" and adds "good standard of living" as something for the government to do, and also gives an alternative--"just let each person get ahead on his own." To me, those changes sound like they could make a difference.

 Fortunately, there's some evidence on this point--in 1974, an NORC survey asked the earlier form, and found that 78% agreed, 10% disagreed, and 12% had no opinion.  It also asked the 1964-8 form to a different part of the sample, prefaced by a question asking "whether you have been interested enough in this to favor one side over the other?"  Combining those two questions, 43% chose "job and standard of living," 26% "get ahead on his own," and 27% didn't have an opinion. So the two different questions get substantially different responses. The job and good standard of living question has been asked a number of times since then, usually finding a majority on the "get ahead on his own" side. The "see to it that everybody who wants to work can find a job" was asked several more times in the 1970s, with about 75% agreeing. So it seems pretty clear that the story of a lasting decline in white support for government action starting in the early 1960s is not correct. If anything, support for government action was somewhat higher in the 1970s than in the 1950s. 

 

PS:   My title is sort of misleading.  I could look it up because I'm familiar with public opinion data, so I knew where to look.  But the story didn't have a link or any kind of information about the source, so the average person couldn't.  

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