Friday, September 25, 2020

Breaking it down

At one time, knowing whether someone was a blue-collar or white collar worker helped you to predict how they voted--blue-collar workers were more likely to vote for the Democrats.  That's no longer true, or is true to only a slight extent.  But casual observation suggests that there are differences among occupations--for example, if someone is a university professor, it's a good bet that he or she voted for the Democrats (or at least didn't vote Republican).  It's hard to go beyond casual observation, since most opinion surveys don't ask about occupation.  However, the General Social Survey asks about exact occupation and codes it into detailed Census categories, and you can combine years to get a larger sample.  I did this for two periods:  1972-88 (which covered the 1968-1984 presidential elections) and 2000-2018 (1996-2016).  I computed the occupation effects on vote for president (omitting people who supported third-party candidates), controlling for race (black/non-black), education (have/don't have a college degree) and log of family income.  This let me get estimates for about 350 occupations.   The most Democratic and most Republican occupations in each period:

Most Democratic

1968-84                                                                                                1996-2016

Maintenance workers, machinery                                            Biological Scientists

Reservation & transportation agents                                       Judges and magistrates

Actors                                                                              Medical records technicians

Meter readers, utilities                                                            Writers and authors

Weighers, measurers, checkers                            Social and human service assistants

Pumping station operators                                                     News analysts, reporters

Procurement clerks                                                      Tax examiners and collectors

Other education, training, and library              Public relations & fundraising managers

Crushing, grinding, mixing workers                               Psychologists*

Therapists, all other                                              Food service workers, non-restaurant

 

Most Republican

 

Optometrists                                                       Credit authorizers, checkers & clerks

Health practitioner support techs                                          Engineers, all other

Printing, binding, and finishing workers                              Logging workers

Computer & info. systems managers        Office machine operators, exc. computer

Architectural and engineering managers                 Print binding and finishing workers

Pharmacists                                                                                 Pharmacists

Chemical processing machine operators               Dining room & cafeteria attendants

Industrial engineers                                                                   economists*

Insurance underwriters                                                             Parts salespersons

Software developers, applications & systems                      upholsterers

 

Because of small numbers, there's a good deal of uncertainty in the estimates for many of these occupations (or you could say that to a large extent being in the extremes is a matter of chance), but there's still a noticeable pattern:  the most Democratic occupations of the early period were mostly blue collar or lower white collar, while the most Democratic ones of the later period are mostly professional; the most Republican go from mostly managers and professionals to a wide-ranging mix. 

To get a more general picture, I used the top-level census categories.  There seemed to be a lot of variation within "professional and related occupations", so I broke that one into the next level.  Here is a figure showing the relative positions of the groups in the early and recent periods:


The ones above the line moved towards the Democrats (in relative terms).  The biggest moves were legal; education, training, and library; "life, physical, and social science"; and computer and mathematical occupations.  On the other side, resource, construction and maintenance, architecture and engineering, production, and social service (which includes clergy) moved towards the Republicans.  The changes led to a good deal of reshuffling of relative positions--resource, construction, and maintenance was the 10th most Republican (out of 14) group in the early period and third most Republican in the late one; on the other side, computer and mathematical occupations went from second to tenth.  Legal occupations were the second most Democratic in the early period, and became even more Democratic in the late period. 



*Professors of psychology or economics are classified as "post-secondary teachers," so these are psychologists and economists who work outside of universities. 

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