The twelfth day of Christmas

A Washington Post story had a quote from Lindsey Graham that sums up the last decade of American politics:

"It’s resonating with our base for sure.  .  .  . This is not really about immigration now. . . . When they’re told by the people they hate that this makes no sense, it makes them more determined to get the wall.”

The idea of a wall along the US-Mexican border has been around for a while--there were survey questions as far back as the early 1990s.  A 2006 NBC/Wall Street Journal survey asked "Would you favor or oppose building a wall or a fence all along the border between Mexico and the United States, from Texas to California?"  Opinions were split evenly:  32% strongly in favor, 15% somewhat in favor, 16% somewhat against,  33% strongly against.  Conservatives and Republicans were more likely to favor one.  There was little or no difference between blacks and whites--support was lower among Latinos, but a substantial number (35%) were in favor.

                                       SF            F            A        SA
Democrats                     25%        13%       18%     43%
Independents                 37%        11%        15%    38%
Republicans                  42%         21%       16%    21%

Liberal                            24%        11%      15%    48%
Moderate                        29%        18%      17%    32%
Conservative                  40%        14%      13%    27%

White                             33%        15%      16%     32%
Black                             39%         12%     18%     28%
Hispanic                        21%         14%     13%     46%


In January 2018, an ABC News/Washington Post poll asked "Do you support or oppose building a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico?"  Support was somewhat lower than in 2006:  27% strongly in favor, 10% somewhat, 10% somewhat against, and 49% strongly against. 

                                      SF            F            A        SA
Democrats                        7%        5%         11%    75%
Independents                 20%        12%        15%    45%
Republicans                   54%        18%          9%    17%

Liberal                              9%          3%       8%    79%
Moderate                        18%        12%      12%    55%
Conservative                  53%        14%      10%    23%

White                             33%        12%      10%     41%
Black                             11%           3%     10%     75%
Hispanic                          9%           7%     16%     66%

Support has grown among Republicans and conservatives, but fallen among Democrats and liberals, and also among independents and moderates.  In fact, moderates in 2018 were less favorable than liberals were in 2016.  The most interesting thing to me is that support has collapsed among blacks and Latinos.  Part of that is party identification, but the changes are so big I don't think that's the whole story.


Graham was thinking of one side, but neglecting the other--if Trump and his base insist on the wall, then people who are not part of his base oppose it more strongly. Since most people aren't part of his base, that means that support for a wall has fallen. 


[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]