Monday, January 6, 2014

Republicans and Evolution

In the last few days, Charles Blow and Paul Krugman have both written about a Pew survey that asked whether humans and other living things "have existed in their present form since the beginning of time" or "evolved over time."  Pew reports that partisan differences have widened dramatically since 2009:  Democrats have become more likely to believe in evolution and Republicans have become less likely.  Although the Pew report mentions only the 2009 survey, the question has been asked a number of times since 2005.  Here are the results--the numbers represent the percent saying "evolved" minus the percent saying "existed in their present form."


The 2009 survey is an outlier--everyone was more likely to express support for evolution than they were in the surrounding years.  I'm not sure why the results from this survey should be so different from the others, but I noticed that it focused on science, while the others had a mix of topics.  So perhaps people felt more inclined to go along with the scientific consensus after answering a lot of questions on science and technology.  Another possibility is that people who didn't have much knowledge of science or faith in science were less likely to agree to participate in a survey on science.  In any case, any comparison involving the 2009 results should be taken with a grain of salt.   

If you omit the 2009 survey, partisan differences have become a bit wider over the whole period, not because Republicans have become less likely to believe in evolution, but because Democrats and independents have become substantially more likely to believe in it.  

3 comments:

  1. Hi David,

    This does a good job highlighting the dangers of just relying on two surveys when trying to detect a trend. If you get an outlier (which the 2009 poll appears to be) you may make incorrect assumptions (which it appears as though Paul Krugman has done here: http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/02/tribalism-biology-and-macroeconomics/?_r=0).

    Regards,


    Shaun

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  2. Pew usually shows pretty complete information about results from previous surveys. Unfortunately they didn't this time.

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  3. Indeed. Sorry, just realized you'd already linked to Krugman's article, so I double linked. I passed the link to this story onto Andrew Gelman (who had posted about the Pew poll on the Monkey Cage) and he's now linked to your blog on his (here: http://tinyurl.com/k9lt3ek). Hope that's okay.

    Regards,


    Shaun

    ReplyDelete