The polls suggest a very close election, but there is often some systematic polling error--in 2016 and 2020 Republican support was underestimated. One potentially relevant factor is that there was unusually high turnout in 2020--the rate rose from 60.1% in 2016 to 66% in 2020. Infrequent voters tend to be less educated, which today means that they tend to vote Republican. That may have contributed to the underestimation of Republican vote in 2020. It seems likely that turnout will be lower this time, which reduces the chance that the polls will underestimate the Republican vote and to the extent that they have tried to correct by giving more weight to less educated respondents, makes them more likely to overestimate the Republican vote. So if I had to guess, I'd say the error is likely to be in the other direction this time--that Harris will run ahead of the polls.
The figure shows turnout in 2020 and 2016 by state (from this source):
Turnout increased in every state--the reference line shows a uniform increase. There are several states that had a relatively large increase, but only one of them is a swing state--Arizona.
A couple of bonuses: first, an update on questions about confidence in "the wisdom of the American people" in making political decisions or election choices:
Second, an outfit called EON Journals falsely lists me as the editor of one of their journals. I asked them by e-mail to remove my name, and got no response. I followed by sending a letter to the address they listed. I got it back today, with a notice saying "Return to sender/Attemped--Not known/Unable to forward." So their mailing address is fake too.
[Some data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]
