Saturday, April 2, 2022

Going to extremes

 Since 2000, some surveys have asked "Overall, would you describe the views and policies of the [party] as too extreme, or generally mainstream" for the Republican and Democratic parties.  The results, summarized as "mainstream" minus "too extreme."


The Democrats (blue line) have a consistent advantage on this--they were perceived as more mainstream than the Republicans in nine of the eleven surveys.  There is a negative trend for both parties.  It may seem strange that the last two surveys (September 2020 and Sept 2021) don't show any unusual movement for the Republican party--you might think that four years of Trump and the aftermath of Jan 6, 2021 would have made a difference.  But one of the most important principles for understanding public opinion is that most people don't pay much attention to politics, and that the people who ado tend to be committed partisans who will rationalize the actions of their side.  So unless something is at the top of the news, it won't have much impact on the party image.  Sophisticated observers tend to forget this and suggest that perceptions are strongly affected by subtle shifts in policy or "messaging."  The one unusually low point for the Republicans was during the 2013 debt ceiling standoff, which was a big news event.

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]

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