Tuesday, April 19, 2022

A populist puzzle

 A few days ago, Paul Krugman asked "why has [the Republican party] also remained the party of plutocrats and the enemy of any policy that might help its many working-class supporters?"  He drew a contrast with France, where  the National Rally "is if anything to the left of President Emmanuel Macron," pointing specifically to differences over the age for retirement benefits--Macron has said it needs to be increased, and Le Pen that it should be maintained and even reduced for some workers.  George Will unwittingly provided an answer on the same day.  Will complained that Macron was "retreating even from his vow to raise the pension-eligibility age from 62 to 65. Now, fighting populism with a dose of it, he suggests sending pension reform to almost certain defeat in a referendum."   That is, the National Rally is "to the left" of Macron only because Macron took a position in favor of changing the retirement system--the Republican position is similar to the National Rally's.  

To a large extent, views of retirement programs aren't part of general left/right ideology, but form a separate dimension.  One end, which you could call the "responsible" position, holds that broad-based sacrifices will be necessary--given rising life expectancy and low birth rates, people will have to work longer or pay higher tax rates to finance retirement programs.  The other end holds that no major changes are needed.  The "responsible" position is popular among elites, but not among the public, so neither Democrats or Republicans openly support it.  In the past, sometimes bipartisan groups of politicians have agreed to make cuts, but increasing partisan polarization has put an end to this (the last major effort was Barack Obama's fruitless attempt to reach a "grand bargain" with John Boehner).  

The interesting question is why Macron ever made a point of calling for an increase in the retirement age.  One possibility is simply because he didn't have much previous political experience and didn't realize that it was better to stay away from the issue.  Or perhaps there's more deference to elite opinion in France, so that the position was less unpopular than it would be here.  

 A 2018 Kaiser Family Foundation poll asked whether Congress should increase, reduce, or keep spending the same in a number of areas.  The percent saying increased minus the percent saying reduced, going from most to least support for an increase:

Education                      +64

Social Security             +46

Medicare                      +39

Medicaid                      +22

National defense          +22

Welfare programs           -8

Entitlement programs   -14

Foreign aid                    -34

There was a substantial partisan split, with Democrats more in favor of increased spending, on every item except Social Security.   On that, support was about equally strong among Democrats, Republicans, and independents.

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]



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