Adrian Vermeule, a professor at Harvard Law School, writes that "the Supreme Court faces a serious problem in the court of public opinion . . . . If the Court, having invalidated the President’s tariffs, also invalidates the birthright citizenship order . . the Court will have invalidated the President’s two main or signature issues, on which he has campaigned since 2016 and twice won the Presidency."
In the past year, a number of surveys have asked about birthright citizenship. The wording varies, so I'll summarize by giving percent in favor of keeping birthright citizenship and percent in favor of eliminating it:
Keep Eliminate
Jan 2025 61% 30%
Jan 2025 56% 43%
Feb 2025 55% 31%
Feb 2025 56% 39%
April 2025 67% 31%
May 2025 54% 28%
June 2025 74% 23%
June 2025 64% 31%
Nov 2025 72% 28%
Dec 2025 70% 24%
Average 63% 31%
All ten surveys showed a majority in favor of keeping birthright citizenship. The narrowest margin (56%-43%) was for a question that mentioned Trump's executive order: "As you may know, Donald Trump signed an executive order arguing that children born in the United States are only US citizens by birth if they have at least one parent who is a US citizen or a legal permanent resident. Several states and outside groups have sued the Trump administration, arguing that there is a longstanding constitutional guarantee that children born in the US are automatically US citizens by birth. All in all, do you approve or disapprove of Trump's executive order limiting citizenship?" The widest margin (72%-28%) was for "The Supreme Court is expected to hear arguments asking whether the 14th Amendment’s provision that those 'born in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof,' are U.S. citizens was intended to only apply to newly freed slaves after the Civil War and should not apply to a non-citizen‘s child who is born in the United States today. How do you think the Supreme Court should rule?" There were some questions that just asked for opinions without giving arguments on either side: for example, in May 2025 "Do you support or oppose . . . ending birthright citizenship, which makes anyone born in the United States a citizen" got 28% support and 54% opposed. Although the small number of surveys and variation in wording means that there's a lot of uncertainty, support for birthright citizenship may have increased over the year. But clearly the Supreme Court will have more trouble in the "court of public opinion" if it supports Trump than if it opposes him on this issue.
I found only three questions on the subject before 2025--one from late 2024, one from 2023, and one from 2015. This is relevent to Vermeule's claim that it is "one of his signature issues, on which he has campaigned since 2016." The general idea of "getting tough" on illegal immigration was certainly a central part of Trump's appeal, but ending birthright citizenship was not a major issue. The Trump Social Media Archive shows only one mention of birthright citizenship during the 2016 campaign (charging that Ted Cruz had changed positions, but not giving Trump's own position) and none in 2020. There were a few in 2024 reposting articles supporting Trump's position, but nothing in his own words. That is, he didn't campaign on the issue--he (or Stephen Miller) just decided to elevate it after his election. This is part of a general pattern in which the second Trump administration has been more extreme than the first. After January 6, 2021, mainstream Republicans temporarily distanced themselves from him, and the people who stuck with Trump during his exile have had a lot of influence in his second term.
[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]
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