A new paper by Craig Volden, Jonathan Wai, and Alan E. Wiseman looks at the educational background of members of Congress over a 50-year period (1973-2021). Their major conclusion is given in the title: "On the Decline of Elite-Educated Republicans in Congress." Over the years, Congressional Republicans have become less likely to have degrees from elite universities, while Democrats have become a little more likely. As a result, a "diploma divide" has appeared, with Democrats more likely to have elite degrees. The figure shows the percent of Democratic and Republican members of the House of Representatives who have elite degrees (see this Washington Post story for more figures).
Taking both parties together, representation of elite degrees in the House has declined (it's been roughly constant in the Senate).
I had done similar research on a smaller scale, comparing two Congresses (1953-5 and 2017-9). I had expected to find a substantial increase in the percent with elite degrees, but that wasn't the case. By my definition of elite, it only went from 17% to 18%. I noticed that the share of elite degrees declined among Republicans and increased among Democrats.
Considering both studies together, it seems that the share from elite universities is about the same in recent years as it was in the early 1950s, but lower that in the 1970s: that is, it peaked in the 1970s. The Republican share of those with elite degrees was higher in the 1950s than the 1970s--that is, the changes since the 1970s continue a longer trend. (Of course, our definitions of elite universities weren't identical, but they were similar enough so I'm pretty confident in these claims).
In another post, I suggested that there has been a change in the relationship between elite university background and political orientation. " At one time, elite colleges played an important part in creating an 'establishment'.... that's no longer the case, at least on the conservative side." That is, I thought that Republicans with an elite educational background used to be more moderate, but that this was no longer the case. The Volden, Wai, and Wiseman data lets me test that idea. I divided it into four periods and compared the DW-Nominate scores of elite graduates and others (controlling for race, sex, and Hispanic status). Negative numbers mean members with elite degrees have more liberal voting records.
House Senate
R D R D
1973-80 -.045 -.052 -.201 -.043
1981-94 -.083 -.056 -.180 -.035
1995-2008 -.049 -.023 -.085 -.048
2009-21 .007 -.002 .021 -.070
Since 2009, Republicans with elite degrees have been just about the same as those without. With Democrats, the difference has disappeared in the House, but stayed the same or maybe even grown in the Senate. So my hypothesis is supported: among Republicans, having an elite degree is no longer associated with more more moderate views. The reasoning behind the hypothesis was that as the political climate at elite universities has moved left, conservatives increasingly feel like an embattled minority, and consciously reject prevailing views rather than being influenced by them. That suggests that the change should be mostly a generational one. An alternative explanation is that party-line voting has become more common in recent years, especially among Republicans, so party is coming to dominate all other differences.
I wonder if part of this trend is a denominator issue. I clicked through and wasn't quite clear how "elite university" is defined--one of the papers had a table that said it listed the top 20, but there were many more than 20 in its list--but, in any case, I expect that the #degrees given by elite 4-year-colleges and universities, divided by #degrees given by all U.S. 4-year-colleges and universities, has declined over the past 75 years. Harvard and Yale aren't much bigger than they used to be, but now there's the University of Maryland, Ohio State, and other huge state schools that offer top-quality education. So I'd expect a natural decline in the "elite" percentage in any case, with the increase among elected Democrats having to do with changes in that party's organization.
ReplyDelete