Getting tired of winning

There have been a lot of news stories about Donald Trump since he took office, but I don't recall seeing many about his approval ratings.  I looked up surveys in the Roper Center's iPoll database and calculated net approval (approve-disapprove):

I was primarily interested in questions about "the way he is handling his job as president," but before his inauguration there were a few about how he was handling the transition and about his first term, so I show them too.  Those were all positive, and his ratings for the second term started out positive, but there seems to have been a steady decline, and all of the surveys in February found more disapproval than approval.  

A more comprehensive collection is maintained by 538:  it includes about 60 polls with the approval question, while the Roper Center has only 10.  Again, there is a downward trend.  

.

I did some regressions of the net approval rating on time in days*:

                 estimate   se
iPoll         -.35         (.095)
538          -.32          (.071)
538w       -.30          (.071)
538r         -.24          (.049)

The 538 collection rates the quality of different survey organizations, so I did a regression with the  cases weighted by quality (538w).  I also did one adding dummy variables for each survey organization, which amounts to basing the estimates differences among surveys taken by the same organization (538r).   All agreed in showing a downward trend.  The 538r estimate means that his net approval rating has declined by 1 about every four days, and even the lower end of the 95% confidence interval means by 1 every 6 or 7 days.  This is a pretty strong trend, so why hasn't it received more attention?  One reason is we're a long way from the next election--polls get more attention as elections get closer.  Another is competition from all of the other things that have been happening.  But I think that there's another factor--the degree to which journalists have adopted the "vibe shift" story.  Trump has gained support from some influential people, and in the election did relatively well with some groups of voters that are regarded as important or interesting, but he has never been very popular with the public.  

*Most of the surveys were taken over several days; I use the final day for time.

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and 538]