Group differences in voting, 2016-2024

 After the 2020 election, I had a post showing how different groups voted in 2016 and 2020, according to Edison exit polls.  This post updates that with information from the 2024 polls as reported by CNN. :

                                         % For Trump

 

                                        2016               2020                    2024

Men                             52%                     49%                  55%   
Women                        41%                     43%                 45%

White                            57%                    57%                 57%
Black                            8%                      12%                13%
Latino/a                      28%                     32%                 46%
Asian-Am.                  27%                     31%                 39%

White Men                 62%                     58%                 60%
White Women            52%                     55%                53%
Black Men                 13%                     18%              21%
Black Women              4%                       8%                   7%
Latino                         32%                     36%                55%
Latina                          25%                     28%                 38%

Age 18-29                   36%                     35%                43%
        30-44                   52%                     55%                48%
        45-65                   52%                     49%                54%    
        65+                      52%                     51%                 49%

Urban                           34%                     37%               38%
Suburban                      49%                     48%                51%
Rural                             61%                     54%               64%

White Coll.                   48%                    49%                45%   
White non-C                 66%                     64%               66%
Non-W coll                   22%                     27%               32%
Non-W non-coll            20%                     26%               34%

under $50,000               41%                     42%               50%
  $50K-49,999               49%                     43%               51%
   $100,000+                  47%                     54%               46%

LGBT                            14%                     28%               13%
Not LGBT                     47%                     48%               53%

Veterans                         60%                    52%               65%     
non-Vets                        44%                     46%               48%

W. Evangelical              80%                    76%              82%
All others                       34%                     37%              40%

Although the exit polls have large samples, the way that they are constructed means that the group estimates can still have fairly large errors, so I focus on the ones that showed a trend over the three elections.   The ones for which I see a trend are in boldface.  Some people talked about his Trump's gains among "minority" voters in 2020.  I was skeptical then, but now I have to agree that there is something going on.  With black voters, the share is still small enough that there's room for doubt, but Trump definitely made gains among Latin and Asian voters.  They may be following the general path of assimilation previously followed by white ethnic groups like Irish Catholics. 

The estimated gender gap among whites was 10% in 2016, 3% in 2020, and 7% in 2024:  that is, despite the Dobbs decision, it didn't change much.  But it did increase among Latins and maybe blacks. Trump has made solid gains among Latinos and black men, smaller gains among Latinas, and smaller and possibly no gains among black women.

Trump made gains with higher income people in 2020, and in 2024 lost ground with them while gaining with low-income people.  That is interesting if it holds up, but overall the differences are small.  Educational differences are large in all elections, and didn't change much.  

 My general assessment is that Trump made gains across the board between 2020 and 2024:  there was not much realignment.  Of course, there's always a good deal of continuity, but I think that the changes between 2016 and 2024 are less striking than the differences between 2012 and 2016.