Sunday, September 25, 2022

Self-interest, economics, and partisanship

 My last post didn't include any data.  That's because it involves a general framework for interpreting events rather than a specific proposition.  However, when looking at potentially relevant data I found an interesting pattern.  Since the 1970s, the GSS has included the question "Do you consider the amount of federal income tax which you have to pay as too high, about right, or too low?"  About 60% say that it's too high and hardly anyone (about 1%) says that it's too low.  You could say that this shows the importance of self-interest:  .  However, opinions on this issue didn't have much connection to partisanship or other political opinions.    The figure shows the average opinions about tax by party and income groups (the first three are roughly quartiles, and the fourth and fifth are roughly eighths.  There's no connection to partisanship except maybe in the highest income group.  



But that figure only includes data up to 2006.  The relationship has changed, and although I haven't examined it systematically, the change seems to have happened pretty quickly.  



Since 2008, Republicans have been more likely to say that they pay too much tax, and the gap grows with income.  High-income Republicans are the most likely to think that they pay too much (71% say too much, 0.2% say too little).  High income Democrats are the least likely:  37% too much, 10% too little (up from less than 3% in 1976-2006).  So this is an economic issue that has grown in importance.  Another interesting point:  that the averages are lower (more people say that they pay too little or about right) in 2008-21.   So you could say that there's been a move away from self-interest, but not away from economic issues--that people's ideas about fairness make more difference than they used to.  Of course, it's not definitive evidence of anything, but it's consistent with my interpretation from last time.


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