I seem to keep getting drawn back to opinions on abortion--here are a few more points that I haven't previously discussed.
1. Since the 1990s, Gallup has asked "if you would only vote for a candidate who shares your views on abortion, consider a candidate's position on abortion as just one of many important factors, or not see abortion as a major issue." The averages, with higher values meaning more important*:
There is a good deal of short-term fluctuation, but it seems clear that there is an increase in recent years. Another example of polarization appearing or accelerating in the 21st century.
2. In 2000, one of the surveys asked if abortion should be legal in all circumstances, legal in certain circumstances, or illegal in all. The ratings of importance by opinions on legality:
only one of many not major % of total
legal 15% 54% 30% 30%
circumstances 10% 55% 35% 50%
illegal 31% 49% 18% 15%
People who thought that abortion should always be illegal were more likely to rate it as essential, while people who took a middle position were least likely to. There were also questions on whether it should be allowed in different trimesters.
Never 28% 51% 20% 30%
First 5% 55% 40% 39%
First & second 15% 56% 29% 18%
all 20% 51% 25% 9%
The same basic pattern, although the difference between the extreme positions is smaller. However, the extreme pro-abortion position (allowed at any time) was held by a only a small minority.
So in 2000, it seems clear that people who were opposed to abortion regarded the issue as more important. Of course, 2000 was quite a while ago, but that's the most recent one for which the full data are available and they had detailed questions on abortion (some of the later ones have asked if people considered themselves pro-life or pro-choice: see the Gallup link above for breakdowns on those).
3. Religion is an important influence on opinions about abortion today--specifically, Evangelical Protestants are more likely to oppose it. I've seen claims that this link didn't appear until the late 1970s, and that the issue was created as a sort of cover for segregation--that is, leaders of the "religious right" wanted to preserve segregation, but they knew that wouldn't be a winning issue, so they looked around for another issue that would help their friends (especially Ronald Reagan) take power. I may look into this more closely later, but here's a quick analysis. The GSS asks people about their general religion, and then asks Christians about their denomination. It has a classification of denominations as fundamentalist, moderate, or liberal. The percent saying abortion should be legal for a single woman who doesn't want to marry the father:
1972-80 1981-2000 2002-2021
Fundamentalist 35% 29% 23%
Moderate 45% 42% 37%
Liberal 73% 64% 63%
The gap was about equally large at all times.** That doesn't directly contradict the idea that the "religious right" coalesced around opposition to abortion, but it suggests that it was mostly leaders shifting their own positions rather than changing their followers' positions.
*I counted "don't know" as equivalent to not a major issue--if you don't affirmatively say that something is important to you, that means it's not that important. But there weren't many--no more than 5%.
**Support for abortion declined over the period in all Christian groups. But it didn't decline in the population as a whole, mostly because the number of people who don't identify with any religion (who tend to support legal abortion) grew substantially.
[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]
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