Ups and downs

 Last week the Supreme Court ruled against New York's restrictions on religious services.  I thought it was a pretty narrow ruling on a pretty narrow issue, so I was struck by both the number and the outraged tone of the reader comments on the NY Times story.  Traditionally, anti-clerical sentiment hasn't been a significant force in American politics, in contrast to countries like France or Italy--even Americans who didn't practice religion seemed to mostly have neutral or even vaguely positive feelings toward religion--but I've sometimes had the sense that this is starting to change.  Is there any systematic evidence on that point?

For many years, the Gallup Poll has been asking whether you think religion is gaining or losing influence in American life.  More recently, the Pew Research Center has adopted the question and sometimes followed it by asking whether it's a good thing or a bad thing that religion is [gaining/losing] influence.  The first time that was asked was in 2002, and the most recent was in 2019.  However, in the 2019 survey there was a large increase in the percent saying "doesn't matter" to the follow-up question.  That was an online survey, and my guess is that they gave a button for that option, while in the 2002 (phone) survey you had to volunteer it.  The most recent phone survey seems to be from 2014, so I included that too.  Here are the results

                                                 2002               2014                2019
Gaining, good                            31%                13%               10%

gaining, bad                                 4%                 11%                 6%

gaining, indifferent                      1%                   1%                 4%

losing, good                                 5%                  13%              17%

losing, bad                                  44%                  60%             42%

losing, indifferent                         3%                     2%            18%

In 2002, 75% had a "pro-religion" combination (gaining and good, losing and bad), 9% "anti-religion."  In 2014, it was 73% and 24%; in 2019, 52% and 23%.  In terms of ratios, that's about 8, 3, and 2.3.  So it appears that there is a growth in anti-religious sentiment.  However, the (February) 2002 figures may not be a good baseline--I think people moved to a more positive view of religion in the wake of 9/11/2001.  Maybe more searching would uncover some earlier figures. 

 

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]