The story of the decade, part 4

 I'm returning to the question I started on last month--why has there been a growth of polarization in the United States in recent years?  I have criticized the leading hypotheses, and now it's time to offer something in their place.

    Traditionally, there was a rough balance between left and right.  On the one hand, the general current of history seemed to be going to the left:  proposals that started on the radical fringe would eventually be implemented over conservative opposition, and after a while would come to be almost universally accepted.  So conservatives could feel like they were, in the famous words of William F. Buckley, "stand[ing] athwart history, yelling Stop!."  On the other hand, conservatives controlled most of the leading institutions of society--maybe some people  at the lower ranks were liberal or even radical, but the people who had the power to make decisions were mostly conservative.  As a result, conservatives with more sanguine temperaments could feel pretty good, figuring that they could block the worst ideas from the left and delay or modify the others so that they didn't do much harm, and maybe even did some good.   

    In recent decades, the current has still been running to the left, but conservatives have lost their advantage in the institutions--some, like education and the media, are dominated by liberals, while in others conservative dominance is weakening.  This situation creates a sense of desperation among conservatives.  As Tim Alberta says, "If there is one principle driving Republican politicians today, it is that traditional American values—faith, patriotism, modesty, the nuclear family—are under siege. . . .  what’s fascinating to observe is the shift in priorities and proportionality. What was once a source of annoyance and frustration for one sect of the party, social conservatives, has turned into the dominant life force for the GOP."  Traditionally, conservatives were willing to retreat, but now they have a sense that any compromise will send us over the edge.  This explains why Republican elites continue to denounce the Affordable Care Act and try to overturn it in the courts, even though their position has become unpopular and they have no alternative to offer.  It also explains why they've stuck with Donald Trump:  he's opposed to the left, and in comparison to earlier Republican leaders has shown less restraint in denouncing it.

The decline of conservative power has been gradual, and the sense of being embattled has been growing for decades, but the Obama administration accelerated it.  Obama was started with a high level of popularity, at a level that no new president had reached in many years, and it seemed that he might be able to lead a realignment which would leave conservatives almost powerless.  This gave conservatives new energy, but it mostly involved opposition to the left, rather than support for any particular goal.  So when Republican voters had a choice, they went for the "fighter" rather than for any of the more conventional conservatives.  And after a while, conventional conservatives realized that they didn't have any principles that outweighed opposition to the left, so they reconciled with Trump.