Monday, September 20, 2010

The progress of humankind

In 1995, a Harris Poll asked: "Would you say you are a better than average driver, an average driver or worse than average?"
54% said better, 40% average, and only 1% worse (most of the remaining 5% didn't drive)

People have a pretty high estimate of their abilities in most areas, so the general pattern isn't surprising. But a 1965 Gallup Poll makes an interesting comparison:

"In general, how do you rate yourself as a driver--better than average, average, or not up to average?"
36% said better, 62% average, and 2% not up to average (non-drivers were not asked)

The question wordings weren't identical, but I don't see any reason that they should produce different responses, so it looks like Americans' estimate of their own driving ability became substantially more favorable over the thirty years.

2 comments:

  1. Maybe it'll turn out that 2% of the drivers cause 90% of the accidents.

    ReplyDelete
  2. That's true, there could be a lot of drivers who are slightly better than average and a few who are a lot worse than average. Then the distribution of self-assessments could reflect reality. I don't really believe that, but it's possible.

    I'm impressed that you found my blog. I haven't been doing much publicity yet.

    ReplyDelete