What's good for ______ is good for the country

A Gallup survey in March 2010 asked about the “health care bill currently being considered by Congress” which was passed soon after. It asked whether the bill would make things better, make no difference, or make things worse for a number of groups and institutions. One was the United States as a whole—39% said it would make things better, 11% said no difference, and 50% worse. Others:

You and your family                               -16

Lower income families                             +28

Middle income families                            -16

Upper income families                             -19

Health insurance companies                        -33

Hospitals                                         -18

Doctors                                           -25

Americans who do not have health insurance today  +38

Pharmaceutical companies                          -15

The numbers are the percent saying better minus the percent saying worse. For example 33% said it would make things better for pharmaceutical companies and 48% said it would make things worse, for 33-48=-15. Then I estimated a multiple regression to predict how people felt about the effect on the US as a whole from their feelings about each of the specific groups. The coefficients:

You and your family                               +.37

Lower income families                             +.08

Middle income families                            +.38

Upper income families                             +.06

Health insurance companies                        -.04

Hospitals                                         +.07

Doctors                                           +.11

Americans who do not have health insurance today  +.07

Pharmaceutical companies                          -.04

A positive coefficient means, in effect, that people think that what's good for the group in question is good for the United States as a whole; a negative coefficient means that what's good for the group in question is bad for the United States (this means you, health insurance companies). Most of the coefficients are positive, but two stand out as much larger than the rest: you and your family and the middle class. The large positive coefficient for “you and your family” is understandable—most of us think that our interests happen to coincide with the interests of humanity. But the coefficient for “middle income families” is just as large. Of course, a lot of people think of themselves as “middle income,” but quite a few think of themselves as lower income. In addition, even people who thought of themselves as well off might think that lower income people deserved a break. But views about whether the bill would be good for lower income people (or people without health insurance) had only a small effect—no more than views about whether it would be good for upper income people.

The public or the polls

Several Gallup polls have asked "If the leaders of our nation followed the views of the public more closely, do you think the nation would be better off, or worse off than it is today?"

             Better   Worse    Same    DK

Oct  1975    66%      15%       9%    9%

Apr  1996    80%      11%            10%

Jan  1999    81%      10%            10%

Sept 2001    75%      18%       4%    3%

Sept 2005    73%      22%       3%    2%

I guess that's to be expected, although the apparent increase in the percent saying "worse" since the 1990s is interesting.  Several of the polls have also asked a slightly different question (to different people--each went to a randomly selected half of the sample):  "If the leaders of our nation followed the views of public opinion polls more closely, do you think the nation would be better off, or worse off than it is today?"

           Better   Worse    Same     DK

Apr 1996    74%      14%             13%

Sept 2001   63%      27%       6%     4%

Sept 2005   61%      33%       3%     3%

Support for following the public and following the polls is closer than I expected--my impression was that "the polls" usually has a negative connotation (following the polls is something that other politicians do).   As with following public opinion, the number thinking it would make the nation worse off seems to increase after 1996. 

Just give me money

In 1951, a Gallup poll asked "Which of these two jobs would you personally prefer a son of yours to take--assuming he is equally qualified:  a skilled laborer's job at $100 a week or a white-collar desk job at $75 a week?"  66% chose the laborer, and 30% chose the desk job, with the rest undecided. 

Of course, "desk job" might be regarded as a bit derogatory--what if they had asked about a specific white-collar job that offered social prestige and non-monetary benefits?  They did, also asking about a choice between "a college professor's job at $4,000 a year or a factory foreman's job at $6,000 a year?"  39% chose the professor and 56% chose the foreman. 

In 2010 dollars, the hypothetical pay comes to $44,000 for the laborer, $33,000 for the desk job, $34,000 for the professor, $50,000 for the foreman. 

Prediction is difficult, especially when it involves the future

In late 1949, a Gallup Poll asked people about their predictions for the next 50 years.

IN JUST A FEW WEEKS IT WILL BE 1950 - AND HALF OF THE 20TH
CENTURY WILL BE OVER. NOW, I'D LIKE TO ASK YOU SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE NEXT 50 YEARS:

Do you think there will be another world war during the next 50 years, or not?
Yes—81%, no—11%, don't know—7%

Do you think a cure for cancer will be found?
Yes—89%, no—7%, don't know—4%

Do you think trains and airplanes will be run with atomic power?
Yes—64%, no—21%, don't know—15%

Do you think men in rockets will be able to reach the moon or the planet Mars?
Yes—16%, no—69%, don't know—14%

Do you think people in this country will go to church more often or less often than they do now?
More—40%, less—31%, same—22%, don't know—7%

Do you think labor unions in this country will become stronger or weaker than they are now?
Stronger—45%, weaker—33%, same—15%, don't know—8%

Another Gallup Poll conducted at the same time asked about some other possibilities:

Do you think the number of working hours per week for the average person will be cut down to about 30 hours—or do you think that the number of hours will stay about where it is today?
Cut—47%, same—39%, don't know—14%

During the next 50 years, do you think that most of the nations of the world will have a democratic government like the U. S., a Communistic government like Russia, or a socialistic government like England?
Democratic—54%, communistic—7%, socialistic—11%, other—3%, “no code or no data”--24%

Do you think a woman will be elected President of the United States at any time during the next 50 years?
Yes—31%, No—59%, Don't know—9%

During the next 50 years, do you think that the government in Washington will own and run  …. the railroads in the U. S.?
Yes—37%, No—43%, Don't know—20%

...the banks.
Yes—28%, No—53%, Don't know—18%

….the big industries, like auto, steel, etc.
Yes—24%, No—57%, Don't know—18%


By my count, that means the majority was right on six and wrong on six, which doesn't seem too bad. 

PS:  The "reach the moon or the planet Mars" is a classic example of poor question design.  I'm surprised they didn't notice that.    On the prevailing form of government, they didn't show a "don't know" category.  I'd guess that "no code or no data" is mostly people who said they didn't know. 

America and Britain

In 1973, the United States Information Agency sponsored a survey of British elites concerning their views of the United States and Britain. It included seven types of elites: government, arts, academics, media, student organizations, business, and labor. I thought that there might be large differences among the groups—for example, business would be more favorable to the United States, arts or academics would be more critical. But although there were some differences, they weren't very striking. The comparison of general views of the nations was more interesting. The survey asked how successful each nation was in providing different things, on a scale ranging from 1 (“very successful” to “not successful at all”). The differences between the average ratings, with positive numbers meaning that Britain was seen as doing better than the United States:

1.51 'taking care of its sick people'
1.24 'rights of its minorities'
1.06 'minimizing drug addiction'
1.03 'peaceful means for changing social conditions'
1.02 'taking care of its poor people'
1.22 'maintaining law and order' 
  .50 'taking care of its old people'
  .35 'good quality education' 
  .35 'minimizing environmental pollution'
  .24 'jobs for everyone who wants to work'
  .18 'full educational opportunities for most people'
  .02 'adequate standard of living for most people'
  .01 'encouraging full development of the arts'

-.32 'stable economy'
-.66 'opportunites for personal career advancement'

It also asked how well certain pairs of terms described British and American societies:
for example, “class conscious” versus “classless,” with the scale ranging from 1 to 7.
The ratings:

2.81 'non-violent'
2.48 'stable'
2.44 'cooperative'
2.22 'law-abiding'
1.86 'disciplined'
1.72 'tolerant'
1.43 'non-materialistic'
.66 'permissive'

   .00 'non-conformist'
-0.10 'innovative (vs. imitative)'
-0.18 'ideological (vs. pragmatic)'
-1.42 'classless'
-2.52 'dynamic'


For example, British elites saw the term “non-violent” as more descriptive of Britain than the United States, and “dynamic” as less descriptive of Britain than the United States. The words in parentheses are the opposing term when it isn't obvious.

Christmas shopping guide (slightly outdated)

In December 1958, a Gallup Poll asked "If you could have your choice, what one present would you most like to have for Christmas?"  About 14% didn't know, said that there was nothing, or didn't answer.  About 7% named some kind of general improvement in their living standards ("lots of money," "a job"), and about 6% said a new house or apartment. Other popular choices: 

New car                                       14%

Clothing                                      11%

Large appliances (e. g., a stove)              8%

Electronics                                    7%

Furniture, home furnishings                    6%

Sporting/Hobby equipment                       4%

Jewelery                                       2%

Small appliances (e. g., sewing machine)       2%

Vacation, trip                                 2%

What struck me was how practical most people were.  Even most of the things I've counted as sporting/hobby equipment might have some practical value--the group includes 27 people who said "tools," compared to two who said golf clubs.  "Jewelery" includes 24 who wanted a watch, compared to only two who wanted a bracelet, and one who wanted pearls.  Of course, there were a few dreamers:  one person want an airplane. 

People were also remarkably centered on their homes.  No one mentioned anything related to dining out or entertainment, except for five who said "a good meal."

This question, or similar ones, have been asked a few times since then, but I haven't looked at them in enough detail to compare them. 

Of a certain age

A 1958 Gallup poll asked  "at what age . . . a woman reaches the peak of her beauty."  Answers ranged from 15 to 75, with an average of 29.9.  Yes, but there was a big difference between the opinions of men and women, right?  Not really--women gave an average answer of 30.1 and men gave an average of 29.6.  The difference is not statistically significant. 

It also asked "at what age does a person reach the peak of his mental ability"?  Answers ranged from one to 83, with a mean of 39.4.  Here, there was a difference between men and women--women gave an average of 37.8, and men an average of 41.1. When I was younger I might have been able to think of a plausible explanation for this difference, but now I'm coming up blank.

There were a few other questions about ages:  when middle age begins (average of 43.9 years), when old age begins (65.3), when an unmarried man should be described as a bachelor (33.8), and when an unmarried woman should be described as a spinster (32.4).  For all of them, women chose a slightly (but significantly) higher average.