Why so close?

 Most recent polls show the presidential race as pretty much neck-and-neck.  Even if the polls have some systematic error, it seems safe to say that the race will be close by historical standards.  How is Donald Trump staying close, despite all his baggage?  I think that the main reason is that most voters remember things as pretty good during the first three years of his administration.  Of course, things changed in the last year, but Trump mostly stepped aside and let state and local governments deal with Covid and the protests after the murder of George Floyd--he offered opinions about what should be done, but didn't make much effort to implement them.  As a result, people give him a pass--if they didn't like what happened, they blame their governor or mayor.  What about his attempt to overturn the results of the 2020 election, culminating in January 6?  Here, the key thing is that Republican elites have stuck with him, saying that there were problems with the election, that Democrats did similar things in the past, or are treating him unfairly now, or are planning to do worse things in the future.  These kind of arguments don't have to persuade to be effective, they just have to muddy the water, so that voters think of the whole issue as "just politics"--a confusing mass of charges and countercharges.   

However, I think that Trump also has a distinct positive--the perception that he says whatever is on his mind.  Since 1988, questions of the form "Do you think that ______ says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?" have been asked about presidents and presidential candidates.  The table shows the average percent "says what they believe" minus "thinks people want to hear" and the number of surveys that asked about different figures:

                      Avg        N
Trump     19.50     2
McCain     6.29     7
Bradley     5.50     2
GWB     2.00     21
Perot     2.00     2
Obama     0.67     12

Giuliani     -7.00     1
Dukakis     -11.00     1
Dole         -18.00     1
Hillary     -20.40     5
Romney     -21.80     5
Gore     -23.50     8
Kerry     -26.08     12
Bill             -26.63     8
GHWB     -30.00     3

There are substantial differences among them.  Trump has the highest average, and although only two surveys asked about him, the evidence is still pretty strong.  Also, the figures don't just track general popularity--Bill Clinton is the second lowest, even though he was a popular president.  Unfortunately, the question hasn't been asked since 2016, so it's possible that perceptions of Trump have changed (as they did for George W. Bush, who improved over time), but I doubt it.  

This doesn't mean that people believe Trump tells the truth--he has always said a lot of things that are false or ridiculous.  However, most people think that they are pretty good at detecting lies, exaggeration, or just letting off steam.  As a result, they may prefer someone who is unfiltered and frequently untruthful to someone who seems calculated  As Ezra Klein says "What makes Trump Trump . . . [is] the manic charisma born of his disinhibition."

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]

*Of course, with "she" rather than "he" for women.  The earliest (1988) versions had slightly different wording.