Abortion rights

 In the New York Times, Jon Shields notes that overall levels of support for legal abortion have remained almost the same over the last fifty years, even as opinions on many "social issues" have become more liberal.  He suggests that this is because both sides can justify their position by an appeal to rights--the rights of women or the rights of  "unborn children."  In contrast, with many social issues, the appeal to rights only works on the liberal side.  This led me to think about a series of General Social Survey questions about whether "whether it should be possible for a pregnant woman to obtain a legal abortion" in different circumstances:

1.  "there is a strong chance of a serious defect in the baby"

2.  "she is married and does not want any more children"

3.  "the woman's own health is seriously endangered by the pregnancy"

4.  "the family has a very low income and cannot afford any more children"

5.  "she became pregnant as a result of rape"

6.  "she is not married and does not want to marry the man"*

 I was particularly interested in the "serious defect" question.  Traditionally, that was one of the most widely accepted justifications for abortion, but recently I have seen some opponents of abortion argue that it amounts to discrimination against the disabled--that is, abortion because of the chance of a birth defect is doubly bad.  I wondered if this idea has had any impact on the general public.  

Support for legal abortion is considerably higher for #1, #3, and #5 than for #2, #4, and #6, so I show them in two different graphs:

 These are all circumstances which people who think of themselves as "pro-life" might see as justifying abortion.  Although large majorities are in favor of legal abortion in these cases, support has been declining.  The largest decline is for "a serious defect," suggesting that the discrimination argument may have had some impact.  

 The other questions show a different pattern--support declined until about 2000, but has risen since then.  The increase has been largest for the "married and does not want any more children"--support for legal abortion in those conditions is now as high or higher than it was in the 1970s.  I can't think of a good reason why that one is different from the others.  

I should point out that all of the changes are small, but I think they suggest that Shields is correct--that opponents of abortion are increasingly thinking in terms of the rights of the unborn.  That way of thinking makes it harder to justify exceptions for rape or a serious defect.  

I also considered the associations among opinions on abortion in the different cases.  Generally, they have increased--there's an increasing tendency to support or oppose abortion across the board.  But there is one clear exception to that pattern--the association between opinions about whether abortion should be allowed if the woman's health is endangered and if there is a defect has declined since the 1970s.  I think this also suggests that there has been a shift in the way people think--at one time, they were both thought of as "medical reasons" but now they are increasingly differentiated. 

*There is also one about if "the woman wants it for any reason."  I leave this out partly because it didn't start until 1978 (the others started in 1972) and partly because I suspect that some respondents interpret it as asking whether abortion should ever be allowed.