John Sides had a piece in the Washington Post called "Surprisingly few voters think Trump cares about 'people like me.'" I have been harping on this issue for several years--I think this was the first post and here is another. But Sides found some surveys that I hadn't discussed, and made an important point that I hadn't stated explicitly: the idea that Democrats care more about ordinary people is pretty much a fixed part of popular images of the parties--it would take more than a few promises to protect social security and close tax loopholes for a Republican to convince people that he's the one who cares more. What was unusual about 2016 was not that Trump did well in this respect, but that Clinton did poorly for a Democrat.
Sides's column inspired me to look for more data on the subject, and I found a survey from 2011 that asked people whether Barack Obama:
"Can manage the government effectively"
"Is in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives"
"Is honest and trustworthy"
"Shares your values"
"Is not a typical politician"
"Is a person you admire"
"Is intelligent"
"Can get the economy moving"
"Is likeable"
It also asked the same questions about Donald Trump, who I guess was making noises about running for president then. The comparison, arranged from those on which Trump did best relative to Obama to those on which he did worst:
Obama Trump Difference
Not typical politician 54% 68% +14%
Tough enough 55% 57% +2%
Economy moving 45% 47% +2%
Intelligent 88% 81% -7%
Manage 47% 36% -11%
In touch 50% 28% -22%
Honest 57% 35% -22%
Admire 53% 29% -24%
Shares values 50% 25% -25%
Likeable 83% 47% -36%
Putting it another way, an overwhelming majority saw Trump as intelligent, a majority as not a typical politician, about half saw him as tough, able to get the economy moving, and likeable, but only a minority saw him as able to manage the government, in touch with the problems of ordinary people, or as sharing their values. That is, the perception of caring was one of Trump's weaker points, not one of his stronger ones.
The survey also asked if you approved of the job Obama was doing as president, and if you had a favorable or an unfavorable view of Trump. I did logistic regressions of each on the qualities. I omitted "get the economy moving" because that could depend on your view of policies rather than personal qualities, and "is a person you admire" because that's a general judgment not a specific quality. The results (standard errors in parentheses):
Obama Trump
Manage 2.47 1.51
(0.32) (0.29)
In touch 1.34 0.04
(0.32) (0.30)
Honest 0.94 1.15
(0.39) (0.27)
Values 1.70 1.38
(0.34) (0.29)
Not typical 0.13 -0.28
(0.30) (0.28)
Tough 1.39 0.87
(0.35) (0.34)
Intelligent 0.05 0.00
(0.69) (0.53)
Likeable 0.59 1.71
(0.62) (0.27)
The qualities of being a good manager, in touch, honest, sharing your values, and being tough enough made a difference for both. There was no evidence that being seen as intelligent or not a typical politician mattered (controlling for the other qualities). Being in touch with the problems of ordinary people mattered for Obama, but not for Trump (or at least not as much).* So not only did people not see Trump as caring, but they didn't seem to care about whether he cared. I once offered the hypothesis that "people [who supported Trump] saw him as an s.o.b., but thought that was what the country needed," and I think these results support that.
*Likeability seemed to matter more for Trump, although the evidence is not that strong. That might have to do with the specific qualities that some people saw as likeable in each. I think the people who liked Trump would mention qualities like "a fighter," or "not politically correct," while many people who liked Obama would think of less politically relevant qualities like being a good husband and father.
[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]
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