Diversion

I have a post coming about the popular idea that certain kinds of people live in "bubbles" in which all of their friends share their political views.  On the way there, I ran across an unrelated bit of information.  In 1998, the Gallup Poll asked "Some people say there's not much opportunity in America today--that the average person doesn't have much chance to really get ahead. Others say there's plenty of opportunity and anyone who works hard can go as far as they want. How do you feel about this?"  They repeated the question in 2011, 2013, and 2016.  I'd noticed this question before, and thought it was potentially interesting.  But then I discovered something that made it seem more interesting:  the same question (except it said "man" rather than "person") was asked in the very first American National Election Study, back in 1952. The results:

                   Not much               Plenty         DK
1952                10%                    87%            4%
1998                17%                    81%            2%
2011                41%                    57%            2%
2013                43%                    52%            6%
2016                28%                    70%            2%

It's too bad the ANES didn't stick with the question--the lopsided responses in 1952 probably were a factor in making them decide it wasn't worth repeating.  We'll never know if those responses just reflect the economic conditions of the time (the unemployment rate was about 3% and falling), or something more general. The figures from 2011, 2013, and 2016 suggest that answers are sensitive to current economic conditions, so it would be interesting to see what would happen if they repeated it today.   However, unemployment was only a little higher in June 2016 than in April 1998 (4.9 vs. 4.3) but the percent who said "not much" was substantially higher.  That could be that people have become substantially more discontented in the 21st century, or that opinions on the question have become more "politicized"--in 2011, Democrats were substantially more likely to say "doesn't have much chance" although there was a Democratic president.  The individual-level data aren't available for the 1998 survey, but they are for 1952, so I will take a look at that relationship sometime. 

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research and ANES]