The Golden Age?

Ross Douthat had a looking-back-at-the-decade column in which he said "the 1990s, was a period of hubris, when we half-believed that we were entering a new age of domestic dynamism and global power — that our leaders deserved trust again  ...."   Or did we?    General confidence in government rose in the first half of the 1980s, but then declined, hitting a record low in 1990, bouncing back in 1992, and then falling to new low in 1994.   George Bush, despite success in the cold war and the first Gulf War, not only lost his bid for re-election in 1992, but got a smaller share of  than Jimmy Carter had in 1980.  Ross Perot got 19% of the vote in that election even though he had no political background and wasn't particularly well known before he ran for president.  Bill Clinton had a fairly high approval rating when he took office, but it declined rapidly--by June 1993, it was under 40%.  There was no dramatic negative event in that period--as I recall, there were just a number of relatively minor missteps but people judged them harshly.  Then there was the 1994 election, when the Republicans gained 50 seats and got their first majority in the House of Representatives in 40 years.  We've become used to Republican majorities over the years since then, so people have forgotten just how unusual this was--not only hadn't there been a Republican majority for 40 years, but there hadn't even been any close calls.  For example, after Reagan's landslide re-election in 1984, the Democrats still had a 252-182 majority in the House. 

Overall, the public mood was very negative in the first half of the 1990s--it didn't start to improve until about 1995.  I don't have any explanation to offer--I just find it intriguing. 

While thinking about this, it occurred to me that I've sometimes suggested that Ross Perot appealed to the same general sentiments of "America First" that Donald Trump did, but I haven't actually looked at the evidence.  I looked at a survey in June 1993 that had questions about immigration, NAFTA, and a number of questions about economic competition with Japan.  Opinions about NAFTA and Japan had little or no connection with reported vote in the 1992 election (Perot later became known for opposition to NAFTA, but at that time most people said they didn't know what his position was, and many said they didn't know what Bill Clinton's position was).  Opinions about immigration did make a difference, though--support for Perot was 8% among people who who thought immigration levels should be increased, 11% among those who thought they should stay the same, and 16% among those who thought it should be reduced.  72% of the people who reported voting for Perot thought that immigration should be reduced, compared to 62% of Bush supporters, 62% of non-voters, and 55% of Clinton supporters.

That's not overwhelming, but it gives some support to my ideas about Perot's appeal.

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]