Hard work

In 1992, a survey asked people to choose which statement came closer to the way they felt:  "A--Most people who want to get ahead can make it if they're willing to work hard. Or, B--Hard work and determination are no guarantee of success for most people."  Since then, the question has been repeated in a number of surveys, mostly by the Pew Research Center.  The percent choosing statement A:

There seems to be an increase from 1992 until about 1999, although there are only a few surveys, and there is clearly a decline since then.  I've had a number of posts saying that people aren't especially discontented today (this is one), but they were about people's own lives.  These results suggest that people have less confidence in "the system."

What difference do these feelings make for politics?  I compared the surveys from August 2000 and August 2016.  The August 2000 survey asked people how they would vote "if the election were held today."  The 2016 survey didn't ask that, but asked people if they "would consider voting for" or "would definitely not vote for" Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.  I combined those questions, with consider voting for A and definitely not vote for B taken as equivalent to saying that you would vote for A if the election were held today.  The results:

                                     2000                                    2016
                            D                R                            D                R
Can get ahead     39%           44%                      41%              38%
no guarantee       52%           26%                      44%              33%

In both years, the people who took the "optimistic" position were more likely to vote Republican, but the gap was considerably smaller in 2016.  That is, Trump appealed more to people who thought "the system was rigged" than GW Bush had (or Hillary Clinton appealed less than Al Gore had, although general knowledge of the two campaigns suggests that more of the difference was on the Republican side). 

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]