Elites and the public on tariffs

My last few posts have been about how public opinion moved to the left between 2014 and 2016, especially on issues of race.  That raises an obvious question--why wasn't there a big swing towards the Democrats in the 2016 election?  The basic answer is that there are other things going on, like a general sense of how things are going and the personal qualities of the candidates.   I think that the Democrats probably did gain something from the change in opinions that I have talked about.  But Donald Trump also introduced something new:   the idea that he was more interested in protecting American industry than in free trade.

Between 1978 and 2002, the Gallup Poll had the following question:   "It has been argued that if all countries would eliminate their tariffs and restrictions on imported goods, the costs of goods would go down for everyone. Others have said that such tariffs and restrictions are necessary to protect certain manufacturing jobs in certain industries from the competition of less expensive imports... Generally, would you say you sympathize more with those who want to eliminate tariffs or those who think such tariffs are necessary?"  This question has a couple of good features:  it's about general principles rather than a specific trade agreement and it gives the basic arguments for and against tariffs.  The percent who favor eliminating tariffs minus than the percent who say they are necessary:

Public opinion moved in favor of eliminating tariffs, but even in 2002 only 38% took that position, versus 50% who said tariffs were necessary.  The 1982 and 1998 surveys also had an "elite" sample, and I show opinions in that group too.  A solid majority of elites were in favor of eliminating tariffs (62% in 1998).  

But speaking of "elites" as a whole is kind of misleading, because there were large differences among various kinds of elites.  In 1998:

               

              Eliminate   Justified

Labor           18%       75%

Religious     40%        49%

Media          60%        37%

Business      65%        34%

Politics        71%        25%

Experts       78%        19%

So there was an even larger gap between public opinion and the opinions of political elites, and I think Trump was able to appeal to that.   People could tell that he would place a higher priority on protecting manufacturing jobs than on reducing tariffs--that was a sentiment that no major party nominee had appealed to before.  Of course, public opinion might have changed considerably since 2002, but I think the general point is still true:  the public is a lot less enthusiastic about free trade, even as an ideal, than mainstream politicians are (or were--some may be adjusting their opinions now).   

The definitions of the elites are:

Labor:  Presidents of large labor unions

Religious:  "Religious leaders representing all faiths"

Media:  TV and radio news directors, newscasters, newspaper editors and columnists

Business:  Vice presidents in charge of international affairs, top industrial corporations; leaders of trade and professional organizations

Politics:  Senators and Representatives or their top staffers; assistant secretaries and other senior level executive staff

Experts:  "presidents and faculty who teach in the area of foreign affairs" at an idiosyncratic but pretty elite list of universities.  

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]