Climate of opinion

In the last week or so, Bret Stephens and Ross Douthat have published columns suggesting that the climate change issue is hurting the left.  To quote Stephens "the left . . . has invested itself so deeply, and increasingly inflexibly, on issues such as climate change or immigration . . . it’s a recipe for nonstop political defeat leavened only by a sensation of moral superiority."

In December, I had a post showing results for a question that has been asked a number of times since 1997:   "Do you think that global warming will pose a threat to you or your way of life in your lifetime?"  After a bit more searching, I found a question that has been asked since 1999:  "From what you know about global climate change or global warming, which of the following statements comes closest to your opinion?...Global climate change has been established as a serious problem, and immediate action is necessary, there is enough evidence that climate change is taking place and some action should be taken, we don't know enough about global climate change, and more research is necessary before we take any actions, concern about global climate change is unwarranted."  A figure combining results for the two questions (the  first in blue, the second in red):

The y-scales are proportion who say it will be a threat minus those who don't, and the mean of the four responses (4=immediate action....1=concern unwarranted).  It looks like a pretty definite upward trend--more concern about climate change--with a dip in the middle.  That dip seems to be a consequence of the recession--if you regress the figures on a time trend and the unemployment rate, unemployment has a negative and statistically significant estimate.  The last time the second question was asked, 39% chose "serious threat" and 24% chose "enough evidence."  So it doesn't seem that the left is taking an unpopular position on this issue--it may be farther in the direction of "immediate action" than most of the public, but the right is farther in the do nothing direction than most of the public.  That is the normal pattern--the left party somewhat to the left of the public and the right party somewhat to the right.

I was a bit surprised to see such a clear trend.  This isn't an issue that people can judge from their experience, and in the 21st century conservatives seem to have been united in either denial or obfuscation.  Under those circumstances, you might expect people just to follow their leaders--Democrats say it's happening, Republicans say it isn't--so that the overall distribution would remain constant. 

[Data from the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research]